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Initially, Donald Trump appeared to embrace a resolute stance on Ukraine. After delivering statements of "severe repercussions" during the summer should Vladimir Putin persisted blocking ceasefire discussions, he finally imposed substantial restrictions on the Russian two largest oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft. This decision substantially affected the Russian leader's capability to fund his aggression in the region.

But, with his newly presented comprehensive peace proposal for Ukraine, which was created by US and Russian representatives without Ukraine's or EU input, he has clearly returned to his favorable to Russia stance.

Favoring Military Action

This initiative would essentially favor Putin for attacking Ukraine while putting the country's democracy in jeopardy. Despite strong proclamations that "The nation's autonomy will be confirmed", significant aspects of the initiative effectively compromise that same sovereignty. This constitutes a Kremlin dream would probably be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Reflecting his corporate background, Trump seems to view the war as a simple territorial dispute, as if handing Putin a section of Ukrainian soil will satisfy the president. However, Putin's invasion is not merely about dominating a charred swath of deindustrialized territory in eastern Ukraine. Instead, it's about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear desire to destroy it so it ceases to functions as an attractive example for the Russian people of the democratic leadership that his growing dictatorship denies them.

Territorial Concessions

Although maintaining in place the presently separated oblasts of these areas, Trump's initiative would require the nation to surrender all of this eastern territory. Beyond favoring Russia with area that its troops have been unsuccessful to capture in over a decade of conflict, this concession would make Ukraine's defenses severely undermined.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's well-known "fortress belt", the fortified military defenses that are a critical obstacle to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these positions, giving Russian forces a open path to Kyiv in case he subsequently decide to renew the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would make future fighting easier for Russia, the plan would require the nation to cut the scale of its armed forces from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a limit of 600,000. Importantly, the plan sets no such limits on Russian forces.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's campaign to portray the nation's chosen by the people government as radicals, the proposal states: "Every Nazi ideology and activities must be rejected and prohibited." Seemingly to highlight this aspect, it demands that "The nation will hold political contests in three months" of a peace deal. Meanwhile, the proposal imposes no condition that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting elections in his own country.

Defense Commitments

Certainly, the initiative has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade other states" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". Yet considering that the Russian leadership has violated similar agreements in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which the Russian government committed to respect the nation's sovereignty in return for giving up its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a handback of captured areas in eastern Ukraine to the government – why should anyone trust Russia now?

That is why the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western security guarantees. Although the proposal promises a "decisive unified armed reaction" if Russia resume its military campaign, and states that "Ukraine will receive dependable security guarantees", the particulars range from unclear to concerning. The initiative would not only deny Ukraine accession to NATO but also preclude Nato members from deploying forces on the nation's land, effectively blocking the security presence, reportedly commanded by Britain and France, on which the Ukrainian government had been counting to stop Putin from restoring his reduced military, rearming, and attacking again.

International Concern

An additional parallel deal reportedly would offer Ukraine with a similar to NATO defense commitment, in which any future "significant, intentional, and sustained aggression" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "shall be regarded as an act of war endangering the stability and safety of the allied countries." This indicates a armed reaction. But different from a powerful Ukrainian military – the nation's primary deterrent against additional invasion – the credibility of the parallel accord would rely on the dedication of Western powers, such as the US administration, to act with force to Putin's aggression, something they have {not